Mortgage Rate Outlook: What to Expect as We Head Into Spring 2026
January 30, 2026 | Posted by: Keith Leighton
Mortgage Rate Outlook:
What to Expect as We Head Into Spring 2026
With spring home-buying season approaching, many Canadians are watching interest rates closely. The Bank of Canada’s January 28, 2026 policy announcement offers useful insight into where mortgage rates may be headed in the months ahead and how buyers and homeowners can plan with confidence.
Bank of Canada Holds Policy Rate Steady
The Bank of Canada announced it would maintain its overnight policy rate at 2.25%, keeping borrowing conditions unchanged for now. The decision reflects a balance between easing inflation pressures and growing uncertainty tied to global economic and trade conditions.
In its statement, the Bank emphasized that while inflation is moving closer to target, the broader economic outlook remains uncertain. International trade risks and uneven global growth continue to influence policy decisions. The Bank reiterated that future rate moves will depend on incoming economic data rather than a preset path.
What This Means for Mortgage Rates
A steady policy rate generally supports near-term stability in mortgage pricing, particularly for variable-rate products that are closely tied to the Bank of Canada’s benchmark.
Fixed mortgage rates are influenced more by bond yields and market expectations. With the central bank signaling caution rather than urgency, significant downward movement in fixed rates appears unlikely in the short term. Lenders may continue to adjust pricing slightly, but dramatic changes are not expected before spring.
Mortgage rate direction later in 2026 will depend on how inflation, employment, and economic growth evolve. Slower growth or further cooling inflation could open the door to rate cuts, while renewed inflation pressure could delay any easing.
What Buyers Should Consider Right Now
Home buyers preparing for spring may benefit from the current environment of relative rate stability.
Locking in a mortgage can provide payment certainty, especially for buyers working with tight budgets. Variable-rate options may appeal to borrowers who are comfortable with some fluctuation and who believe rates could trend lower later in the year.
Getting pre-approved early remains a key advantage. It allows buyers to act quickly once listings increase and helps protect against unexpected rate changes.
What This Means for Homeowners
Homeowners facing renewals in 2026 should review their options carefully. Even in a stable rate environment, differences between lenders can have a meaningful impact over the life of a mortgage.
Refinancing decisions should be based on long-term goals rather than short-term rate speculation. Accessing equity, consolidating debt, or changing mortgage terms can still make sense even when rates are holding steady.
Looking Ahead to Spring 2026
The Bank of Canada’s latest decision suggests a cautious and data-driven approach to monetary policy. That approach supports a mortgage market that is steady rather than volatile heading into spring.
For buyers, homeowners, and investors, the focus should remain on strategy rather than timing the market. Understanding how current rates align with personal financial goals is far more important than waiting for a perfect rate that may never arrive.
If you are planning to buy, renew, or refinance this spring, speaking with an Ideal Mortgage professional now can help you make the most of today’s conditions.
